Themen:
Insights October 13, 2026

PERSPECTIVES Special | 2026 US Midterms: How Congressional control may shape policy and markets

As the 2026 US midterms approach, voter concerns over affordability and the economy could determine control of Congress and reshape the policy and market landscape.

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Key takeaways 

  • Affordability remains a leading voter concern, and a relatively small number of close races could shape the balance of power in Congress. Different electoral outcomes could reshape the policy backdrop and ultimately sector leadership in the US.
  • AI remains an important policy and investment theme. Questions about data centres, electricity costs and infrastructure could influence the pace of investment, while technology leadership remains a US strategic priority.
  • Look beyond election-day volatility. While the midterms could influence the pace of policy implementation, the report emphasises that longer-term returns have historically been driven more by economic fundamentals, earnings and policy execution than by election outcomes alone.

Conclusion

The 2026 midterms come at an important juncture for the US economy and policy landscape. While affordability and economic conditions remain the dominant voter concerns, the election will influence the administration's ability to advance priorities across tax, energy, AI, and industrial policy more broadly. Although the broader direction of trade and foreign policy is unlikely to change, as midterm elections rarely alter the macroeconomic backdrop, control of Congress could affect the pace of policy implementation, fiscal outcomes, and sector leadership, with implications for energy, financials, technology, industrials, and healthcare. For investors, the key question is how the resulting balance of power shapes the policy environment and relative sector performance.
As election day approaches, polling may provide a clearer signal of the likely outcome, although increasingly narrow margins continue to make forecasting challenging. While elections can generate short-term market volatility, longer-term investment returns have historically been driven more by economic fundamentals, earnings, and policy execution than by election results alone. As a result, investors may be better served by focusing on the longer-term policy implications of the outcome while maintaining a diversified investment approach.

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