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Insights
July 29, 2026
PERSPECTIVES Special July 2026 - Investing in China: Selectivity in a two-speed economy
In this PERSPECTIVES Special, we examine key developments across China's economy and financial markets and what this means for investment across asset classes and sectors.
Renminbi, fixed income and equity markets are considered. Ongoing economic transformation is creating a differentiated investment outlook and selectivity matters more than broad market exposure.
Key takeaways
Introduction and summary
China's ongoing economic transformation is creating an increasingly differentiated set of investment opportunities across asset classes. While overall growth is moderating, the economy remains supported by resilient exports, accelerating technological upgrading and a policy framework focused on strategic priorities such as artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, energy transition and productivity enhancement. These policies are not only supporting near-term growth but are also reshaping China's long-term investment landscape.
Beneath the headline growth figures, a clear divide has emerged. Export-oriented manufacturing, technology and selected industrial sectors continue to expand at a healthy pace, while the property sector and parts of consumer demand remain subdued. The result is a two-speed economy that is creating increasingly pronounced differences in earnings growth, credit quality, capital flows and investment performance.
For investors, this means that China is increasingly a market that rewards selectivity. In foreign exchange, the growing internationalisation of the renminbi and the expansion of the offshore RMB ecosystem are improving market access and broadening the investment universe. In fixed income, diversification benefits, relative-value opportunities and policy-linked investment themes are becoming more important than simple yield enhancement. In equities, the most attractive opportunities are concentrated in areas benefiting from AI investment, industrial upgrading and China's leading position in critical technologies and materials.
Against this backdrop, we maintain a constructive medium- to long-term view on Chinese capital markets, with a preference for selective exposure over broad market allocations. Our highest-conviction opportunities include AI-related technology, industrials and materials, selected offshore USD investment-grade credit, and thematic investments aligned with China's strategic policy priorities.
In the following sections we explore the macroeconomic, policy and market trends underpinning these opportunities and explain why China's transition towards a more innovation-driven growth model continues to create compelling investment opportunities across currencies, fixed income and equities.
Further links on the topic
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Authors: Prof. Dr. Jacky Tang, Chief Investment Officer Emerging Markets - Wolf Kisker, Senior Investment Strategist - Ahmed Khalid, Investment Strategist - Heval Ag, Investment Strategist - Kaniz Fatema Rupani, Investment Strategist - Jason Liu, Head of Chief Investment Office APAC - Swati Bashyam, Investment Officer APAC
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