Themen:
Insights
June 2, 2025
PERSPECTIVES ECONOMIC AND ASSET CLASS OUTLOOK June 2025
MACROECONOMICS: Bilateral reset & deficit spending | FIXED INCOME: Fiscal drivers to the fore | EQUITIES: Rebound complete; upside remains
Letter to Investors
New impetus for investors
Robust economic dynamism, moderate inflation prospects, and solid domestic consumption: not so long ago all these attributes would have been associated with the U.S. in particular. But times have changed: the world’s largest economy is now facing multiple challenges of its own making. By contrast, the outlook for the Eurozone has improved somewhat – although there too, and especially in Germany, exports are likely to be hit by higher U.S. tariffs.
While peak uncertainty about future U.S. trade policy should be behind us, its concrete impact on economies and capital markets is far from clear. Against this background, we expect the pace of growth in Europe and the U.S. to converge from different directions. While there are no winners in global trade disputes, the U.S. is likely to be hit particularly hard by its self-imposed import tariffs.
A more balanced view in capital markets is emerging: all major stock indices have managed to rebound from the losses they incurred as a result of President Trump’s declaration of “reciprocal tariffs” in early April, following their temporary reduction that was announced just a week later. The same is true of the U.S. stock market, which is characterised by high tech earnings momentum and is less burdened by tariffs than the real economy. Looking ahead over the next 12 months, we expect to see further gains in the mid-single-digit percentage range in equity markets in the U.S., Europe, Japan and the global emerging economies, albeit with continued high levels of volatility.
And what does this complex set of factors mean for investors? Basically, we think it might make sense for them to reconsider the composition of their portfolios. This is because the strong capital inflows into the U.S. market in recent years are likely to slow and thus provide scope for broader regional diversification of investments – for example, within the framework of a long-term, strategic asset allocation including active duration management. The focus could be, for example, on stocks from Germany and tech stocks from the U.S., as well as EUR corporate bonds with good credit ratings.
Let us systematically develop your personal strategy.
Christian Nolting
Global CIO Deutsche Bank
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