Insights June 25, 2026

Relief with reservations

Our latest "PERSPECTIVES Viewpoint Commodities: Relief with reservations" explores the recent unwinding of acute energy price increase, particularly in oil, while highlighting deep-seated geopolitical risks and production lags.

Key takeaways 

  • Oil prices have declined significantly but the path to full normalization won't be smooth as production restarts will take time. Gas markets also run the risk of a slower ramp-up due to incidents in Qatar.
  • Gold and silver will be highly sensitive to the Fed's stance and real yields, leading to near-term headwinds. Structural support for gold exists, but waning silver momentum makes it more tactical.
  • Copper has been buoyed by AI optimism and persistent supply constraints. But US tariff decision present key near-term factors.